Forecasting tools and simple, low-cost interventions can help farmers adapt to some of the worst impacts of climate change-driven extreme weather events in Central America.
A new Climate Vulnerability Assessment (CVA) conducted by Chemonics International’s Climate Group surveyed 66 farmers in El Salvador and Honduras to understand their capacity to adapt to climate risks. It found that the timing of planting and harvesting is the most critical on-farm decision farmers can make for climate adaptation, but climate information services to help them choose the best timing are either undeveloped or underutilized. In addition, despite farmers’ awareness of some on-farm adaptive strategies, the growing threat of floods and hurricanes pushes the boundaries of personal adaptation capacity at the farm-level, requiring regional or national-level actions to support farmers.
This study was conducted in support of USAID’s Alliance for Root Causes and Opportunities (ARCO) program, an effort designed to address the root causes of irregular migration by extending support to thousands of farms across Honduras, Guatemala, and El Salvador. Under this wider policy initiative, USAID and its regional Missions are working in partnership with the Mexican Agency for International Cooperation and Development (AMEXCID) and regional NGO Sembrado Vida under the Sembrando Oportunidades bi-lateral framework to strengthen agricultural-based livelihoods.
The CVA identified the following key climate risks impacting farmers in El Salvador and Honduras:
- Drought severity and length is expected to increase because of climate change. Farmers in El Salvador could face six months of drought-like conditions in the near-term and ten months by mid-century. In a high emissions scenario, moderate drought conditions could persist throughout the year by mid-century, signifying an urgent need to move away from reliance on rainfall irrigation and towards water-smart agricultural practices.
- The onset date of the rainy season is becoming more erratic and is another impact of climate change. Analysis of precipitation data over the past four decades reveals a trend of increasing variability in the onset date, with differences of several weeks from year to year. This makes it difficult for farmers to decide when to plant, which can lead to poor germination, stunted crop growth, and reduced yields.
- Future flooding threatens farmland and economies. The CVA applied a forward-looking flood model to illustrate the extent and depth of flood inundation generated by coastal-, riverine-, and rainfall-based flood events in multiple climate scenarios and return periods. In Honduras’ Sula Valley, the study found extensive farmland exposure to even moderate flood events. There are major economic risks as well, considering the possibility of flood damage to roadways and critical infrastructure such as the Port of Cortes, an export hub that is responsible for handling over 90 percent of the country’s import/export goods.
- Projected increases in maximum temperatures and heat wave duration pose significant health risks to on-farm labor. Unmechanized agriculture is strenuous, and with the year’s highest temperatures (February and March) coinciding with the peak labor demand in El Salvador and the postrera harvest period, heat-related health risks and chronic diseases such as kidney disease are likely to increase in the region. High temperatures also make landscapes drier. Coastal El Salvador has extensive groundwater resources, yet overexploitation of slowly recharging aquifers and land-use changes threaten this resource, which is directly linked to the agricultural productivity of small-scale farmers. Coupled with a drier future that may inhibit groundwater recharge, there needs to be greater emphasis on sustainable management, safeguarding, and preservation of groundwater resources.
All these risks are interconnected and pose significant challenges to the long-term viability of agriculture on both drought- and flood-prone farmland. Addressing these challenges will require comprehensive and coordinated efforts from local governments to update flood mitigation plans, with sustained support from a constellation of donors, NGOs, and extensionists to provide farmers with usable forecasts and soil moisture retention methods and techniques to manage excess water.
The CVA identified four specific areas of action, which are detailed further in the full report:
- The Sula Valley urgently needs landscape-level flood management.
- Farmers need to be connected to, and trust, existing seasonal and sub-seasonal early warning systems to effectively plan their operations and protect their farm assets.
- El Salvador needs to lay the groundwork for sustainable groundwater management.
- Farmers need training and better access to information about heat stress reduction techniques.
Several recommendations from the CVA will be implemented immediately; for instance, ARCO is developing a protocol to identify heat stress symptoms and actions to prevent heat-related health effects. Over the coming months, ARCO and its partners will provide tailored training to farmers according to their specific crops, climate risks, and agroecological conditions. These initiatives showcase how studies of climate risk can inform efforts to reduce harmful climate change impacts on farmers.
Nik Steinberg
Nik Steinberg is a climate and water risk specialist. He has spent the last decade characterizing the impacts of climate change on natural and human systems. As an advisor and applied climate researcher at Chemonics International, he works closely with project teams and local communities to develop near-term adaptation responses and longer-term resilience pathways. He has led adaptation planning exercises and conducted climate vulnerability assessments throughout South and Southeast Asia, Southern Africa, and Latin America. Before joining Chemonics, he served as the managing director of research at Four Twenty Seven and Moody’s.
Zachary Johnson
Zachary Johnson is a climate scientist at Chemonics International, with expertise in climate modeling, climate risk, and climate change applications. He actively researches the impacts of climate change on tropical cyclones, climate variability mechanisms, and climate impacts on water resources. Previously, he held a university faculty appointment in climate science and has engaged the energy sector as a meteorologist. He is committed to creating a more resilient and sustainable future by applying his passion in mitigating climate risks and improving our understanding of climate change.
