As climate change accelerates, communities around the world are increasingly vulnerable to both interrelated and simultaneous, seemingly unrelated, risks. Unlike isolated weather events, compound and cascading shocks—where multiple risks interact or one event triggers subsequent crises—pose a growing threat. Complex risk necessitates a shift in how development actors approach international development and climate resilience programs and policies, particularly by integrating comprehensive risk frameworks that account for interdependencies in critical systems.
Understanding Compound and Cascading Shocks
Compound and cascading shocks are distinct yet interconnected concepts. Compound shocks occur when multiple risks, such as extreme weather events, economic disruptions, or pandemics, coincide or interact, amplifying their collective impact. A recent example is the global food security crisis exacerbated by the war in Ukraine, the COVID-19 pandemic, and climate-induced droughts and floods in key agricultural regions. This combination of factors created a "perfect storm" that severely disrupted food supplies and pushed millions into hunger.
Cascading shocks, on the other hand, are triggered when one initial event causes a series of subsequent crises, typically across interconnected systems. The 2020-2022 California drought is one example: historical drought led to a variety of cascading shocks, including declines in agricultural production, wildfires and deteriorating air quality, and a strain on energy supply. These shocks had their own set of impacts—both individually and in combination—including $3 billion in crop revenue losses, health emergencies and increased healthcare costs, biodiversity loss and increased greenhouse gas emissions, and higher energy costs.
Policy and Planning Recommendations
To the extent that development actors are integrating climate risk into their work, we tend to assess the potential impacts of risk by looking at one hazard and sector at a time. Given the growing frequency and severity of these interconnected risks, development actors—including government policymakers, donors, and implementers—must adopt a comprehensive approach to integrating risk into international development and resilience programs and policies, meaning we must consider the possibilities of compound and cascading risk.
These concerns are not unique to the Global South. The U.S. Government’s Fifth National Climate Assessment (NCA5), particularly Chapter 17 on "Climate Effects on US International Interests," highlights the increasing importance of accounting for system interdependency in risk management. This involves recognizing how different systems—such as energy, water, food, and health—are interconnected, even across borders and hemispheres, and how a failure in one area can cascade into others.
To effectively manage these risks, development actors should prioritize the following actions:
- Adopt Comprehensive Risk Frameworks: Incorporate strategies that account for the interaction of multiple risks, ensuring that resilience-strengthening efforts robustly address interconnected systems and risks. Tools such as scenario planning, stress testing, and systems mapping can help to ensure programs and policies are developed with a focus on resilience to complex risk.
- Strengthen Interdisciplinary Collaboration: Encourage collaboration across sectors and disciplines to address the multifaceted nature of compound and cascading shocks.
- Incorporate Adaptive Management: Develop and implement adaptive management processes, allowing actors to respond quickly to unexpected interactions and impacts.
Opportunities to Address These Shocks
Recognizing and addressing compound and cascading risk is essential for enhancing community resilience. As such, National Adaptation Plans and Nationally Determined Contributions are key opportunities to focus on resilience to complex risk. USAID’s Comprehensive Action for Climate Change Initiative (CACCI) is well-positioned to strengthen risk management by helping countries use comprehensive risk frameworks while designing their climate policies and taking climate action. For example, CACCI is supporting the African Union in implementing its Climate Change and Resilient Development Strategy and Action Plan. This support includes enhancing coordination between regional economic communities and Member States in monitoring and evaluating progress on addressing transboundary and complex climate risks.
Government policymakers, donors, and implementers can also follow the actions above to strengthen resilience to complex risk in other programs and policies. Together, we can create more robust and resilient systems and communities despite the increasingly complex challenges posed by climate change.
Dr. Jennifer Denno Cissé
Dr. Jennifer Denno Cissé leads Abt’s Climate Adaptation and Resilience practice, applying her risk and resilience expertise to serve as the climate adaptation technical lead for public and private sector clients. Before joining Abt, Jenn served concurrently as an Associate Academic Officer at the UN University Institute for Environment and Human Security and a Senior Research Manager at the Munich Climate Insurance Initiative. She previously held the position of Senior Risk Advisor for USAID’s Bureau for Food Security. She has a PhD in Applied Economics and Management from Cornell University. LinkedIn
Dr. Molly Hellmuth
Dr. Molly Hellmuth is the Senior Project Director for the USAID Comprehensive Action for Climate Change Initiative (CACCI). She leads a core project team working with more than 15 countries to support increased climate policy ambition, climate integration into sector plans and budgets, improved climate action monitoring and reporting, and enhanced private sector climate finance and investment. An established thought leader, she currently serves as the lead author of the 5th U.S. National Climate Assessment’s International Chapter. She holds a PhD and M.S. in Civil and Environmental Engineering from the University of Colorado-Boulder, a B.S. in Environmental Studies, and a B.A. in French.
Dr. Zarrar Khan
Dr. Zarrar Khan is the Senior Climate Policy Associate at Abt Global, leading initiatives focused on enhancing resilience against climate impacts through integrated adaptation and mitigation efforts. He oversees comprehensive climate feasibility studies, contributes to strategic adaptations for sustainable urban management, and evaluates vulnerabilities for policy reforms. Before joining Abt, Khan served as a computational climate change scientist at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), where he was the principal investigator on critical projects like net-zero pathways in Southeast Asia and the Subnational Climate Action Leaders Exchange.
