A. Assess Climate Risks and Opportunities
Assessing climate risks entails identifying and rating climate risks that could negatively affect the project’s outcomes, and considering opportunities to enhance results and build climate resilience.
In this step, it is important to review climate information relevant to the project’s geography and the time frame over which the project’s benefits should be sustained to ensure the assessment is based on an understanding of recent and expected climate impacts. The Climate Risk Profiles and USAID’s CRM Tool can help identify relevant risks and adaptive capacity. Engaging the assessment team in a facilitated process allows for the consideration of multiple perspectives and diverse expertise.
Regardless of the approach and tools used, each climate risk identified for each project element must be rated as low, moderate or high. (Note that there is flexibility regarding project elements. The team may assess risks to: the project purpose, sub-purpose, area of focus, or the activities contributing to the overall project objectives). Risk ratings are a function of the probability of negative impact and severity of the impact, keeping in mind adaptive capacity.
Assessment teams must consider opportunities, which fall into three categories:
- Achieving multiple development objectives including reducing greenhouse gas emissions;
- Taking advantage of “windows of opportunity” created by the local/national context, e.g., laws, policies, attitudes, and interests of stakeholders; and
- Opportunities created by the changing climate.