Climate Change and Conflict in Africa and Latin America: Findings and Preliminary Lessons from Uganda, Ethiopia, and Peru
This technical report includes research and analysis on climate change and conflict with three case studies covering Ethiopia, Peru, and Uganda. It takes into consideration mechanisms or channels by which climate change could affect security and increase the frequency of conflict, and includes references to other related reports such as one prepared for the World Bank that discusses sea level rise and conflict. The report was developed to help governments, development practitioners and decision-makers better prepare for conflict in areas that will be most affected by climate change.
As an example of discussions within the report, a team of academic researchers analyzed the historical linkages between civil war and temperatures in sub-Saharan Africa. Combining those findings with climate model projections for the future, they found their data suggested “a roughly 54 percent increase in armed conflict incidence by 2030” (Burke et al., 2009), but some analysts cautioned against unqualified assertions of direct causal linkages between climate change and African conflict. Also included are the technical tools and applications to consider for climate resilience including early warning systems, correlations, and vulnerability mapping. The report then presents the three case studies and wraps with lessons learned, especially in the patterns of change and institutions, and knowledge gaps and future research.