Climate Change and Conflict: An Annex to the USAID Climate-Resilient Development Framework
There is growing recognition that climate change can fuel or exacerbate conflict, particularly in countries that are fragile or already experiencing outbreaks of violence. This paper provides a set of guidelines for USAID and its partners to use in planning and implementing programs where this dynamic is at play or has the potential to occur.
It is a complement to USAID’s Climate-Resilient Development Framework, an approach for helping USAID and its partners achieve development objectives in the face of climate variability and change.
It recommends first analyzing conflict dynamics, using USAID’s Conflict Assessment Framework (CAF 2.0). Such an assessment should examine how climate change might influence the context of conflict in a given location, institutional performance, and key actors’ interests, resources and strategies.
This paper offers examples of questions that practitioners can apply to understand the potential interactions between climatic changes and conflict dynamics. These are demonstrated through scenarios that include impacts such as water scarcity, changes in rainfall and greater flood risk.
Climate and conflict, it notes, are often tied to competition over resources, grievances over relative deprivation and instances when climate change contributes to or intensifies natural disasters, such as floods or droughts.
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