Climate Risks to Resilience & Food Security in Bureau for Humanitarian Assistance Geographies: Somalia

Somalia is experiencing an ongoing food security crisis exacerbated by recent drought conditions, over 30 years of conflict, and high levels of internal displacement. Livelihoods are largely dependent on agriculture and pastoralism, and limited resources and competition have allowed armed militant groups to exert control over land and agricultural areas. The threat of violence, limited livelihood opportunities, and climate shock events like floods have displaced hundreds of thousands of people in southern Somalia and left many at the brink of famine. The country is characterized by dry and semi-arid conditions, with very low rainfall on average. Over the next decades, climate models project that Somalia is expected to continue to experience hotter than normal conditions, with cyclical periods of extreme drought and flooding. Somalia’s coastal location also means it is exposed to the impacts of strengthening tropical cyclones and severe storms. The risks posed by these climate stressors will only further challenge efforts to build food security and resilience in Somalia and may exacerbate displacement and violent conflict. 

This Climate Risk Profile provides an overview of climate risks to food security and resilience in Somalia, including an overview of current and projected climate change impacts to agriculture, livestock, fisheries, water resources, and human health. The Profile is focused on USAID Bureau for Humanitarian Assistance (BHA) priority food security investment regions in southern Somalia, including Mogadishu, Afgoye, Jowhar, Baidoa, Berdaale, Hudur, and Kismayo. The profile also includes information on Somalia’s climate policy context and ongoing climate change adaptation and food security projects in the country. Recognizing the unique skills and knowledge that local populations in Somalia bring to addressing climate risks, the Profile details specific risks to those communities living in highly vulnerable conditions, including women, youth, and displaced populations, and proposes illustrative climate risk management measures for consideration in USAID programming.